General set-top boxes based on the risk of the overall shift - set-top boxes, digital television, cable - HC Network Communication industry
The development of digital broadcast television is the inevitable trend of development is the inevitable choice for cable television, and cable digital TV is the overall translation process in the digital cable the only way. So, we in the overall translation process, in the end what is the risk, the extent of risk, how best to resolve the risk, but the ridge around the industry, cable television colleagues must face the issue. The following humble opinion, very immature, right when throwing bricks, hope to jade.
1 economic risks and countermeasures In promoting digital cable television as a whole translation, the most central issue is the economic return on investment. To analyze the investment efficiency and economic risks, the author to use the basic model set-top box implementation of the overall shift, the basic operations to recover the investment by the premise, the following analysis:
1.1 Economic Risk Analysis (1) the establishment of model Order to facilitate the analysis, and to a certain universality of the results, the analysis of abstract objects, we establish the following model:
Cable TV group: 100 000 (The so-called cable TV group is: whether through legal or illegal channels, as long as the fact is cable television's set. This includes among black households, private households and legitimate human users in the book)
Non-black households in the register: the proportion of 15% or 15 000. Less than two years subscription of users: the proportion of 10% or 10 000. (These two combined was 25%, this ratio has some representation. The original analog scrambling in the two areas is greater than 25% of the total in fact. Jianli as the city, the county public security is the case .)
Average household has a TV: 1.2 units. Second a total of 2 million TV sets.
(2) of the prerequisite On legitimate users free of charge a set-top boxes, second sold at cost price.
Of the black households in the cable TV start-up and paid in full after one year subscription, send a set-top box. (Start-up of charges of 400 yuan / household, the basic subscription is 15 yuan per month per household. Total to 580 yuan.) Can also be sold at cost by joint-top way.
By increasing the service's content, the basic subscription to the household from 15 yuan to 25 yuan per month, as set-top box investment income of stability in the long-term source.
Of the second set-top box legitimate users monthly subscription fees charged by half price or pay-per-use, pay on time (in the following analysis, calculated by 10 yuan per month).
(3) Calculation of payback period Total investment = set-top box to send set-top box unit × the total number of + other
= 600 × 10 +6000 × 10% = 6600 (Set-top together and is priced at 600 yuan card, other costs for the whole translation process of human resources, information and management costs)
In the overall translation process of the black households and one-time delinquent account revenue generated: Black households: 580 yuan × 1.5 = 8.7 million yuan Arrears households pay up: 15 yuan × 12 × 2 years × 1 = 3.6 million yuan 2 Total: 12.3 million yuan. After-tax income: 11.685 million yuan Overall translation in the annual increase in income has three components: Black households and households in arrears to maintain fee income ratings: 15 yuan × 12 × 2.5 = 4.5 million yuan
Increase services revenue: 10 per × 10 × 12 = 12 million yuan Second TV subscription revenue: 10 per × 12 × 2 million = 2.4 million yuan 3 Total: 18.9 million yuan after tax income: 17.955 million yuan The first year of the financial costs (to pay bank interest): 6600 × 6% = 396 million (6% annual interest rate calculated by) The second year of the financial costs: (6600-1168.5-1795.5) × 6% = 218.16 (It is assumed that the annual increase in income for loan repayment) The third year of the financial costs: (6600-1168.5-2 × 1795.5) × 6% = 110.43 The fourth year of the financial costs: (6600-1168.5-3 × 1795.5) × 6% = 2.5 Total financial cost: 7,270,900 yuan Payback period: (Total investment of + total financial expenses - a one-time income) / (annual increase of disposable income)
= (6600 +727.09-1168.5) / 1795.5 = 3.43 years (4) the calculation of the efficiency of investment income, as shown in Table 1. The efficiency of investment income, calculated
List Description: ? The first 5-year average investment yield of 7.83%. If calculated according to 8 years 8.85% average investment rate of return.
Total investment is still 60 million of equipment and 10% and other expenses. That is 66 million yuan.
Set-top box set-top box provider by the burden of maintenance. Finance charge of 6% per annum interest rate. Also demanded that the annual increase of income for loan repayment, loan repayment 17.955 million yuan per year.
The whole translation of the user only as a means of effective management. Therefore, the equipment depreciation by 8-year terms, set-top boxes in the future upgrading of the project by the user or operator to bear.
1.2 Risk Assessment and Countermeasures (1) Risk assessment: From the above calculations indicate that, as long as the model with the practical situation, we can achieve the payback period is less than 4 years, and investment income is higher than 7.8% of the investment effect. And the conclusion is not calculated in the value-added services and a large number of cases, the marginal benefit obtained. Opportunity to carry out normal set-top box at least the value-added services include: pay-TV, Near Video-on-demand, data broadcasting, business television, SMS, MMS and so on. So, I think that the overall shift in economic risks are minimal.
But because of the following three reasons, there is still some risk. First, the cable TV group in the accuracy of the ratio of three components, namely, black households and the proportion of delinquent customers is reached or more than 25%; second, the second family
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